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“全面二孩”后五城调查:男孩偏好与哪些因素有关

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年04月19日 17:16:29
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(  自)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(实)(行)(计)(划)(生)(育)(政)(策)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(生)(育)(水)(平)(明)(显)(下)(降)(。在)(人)(口)(增)(长)(得)(到)(有)(效)(控)(制)(的)(同)(时)(,中)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(结)(构)(失)(衡)(问)(题)(凸)(显)(且)(有)(蔓)(延)(势)(头)(。中)(国)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(持)(续)(30多)(年)(失)(衡)(,在)(世)(界)(范)(围)(内)(也)(是)(出)(生)(性)(别)(比)(偏)(高)(最)(为)(严)(重)(的)(国)(家)(之)(一)(。出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(结)(构)(失)(衡)(在)(中)(国)(表)(现)(为)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(偏)(高)(,而)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(具)(有)(明)(显)(的)(生)(物)(学)(属)(性)(,如)(果)(没)(有)(人)(为)(的)(干)(扰)(,自)(然)(生)(物)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(力)(度)(不)(足)(以)(导)(致)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(和)(人)(口)(性)(别)(结)(构)(异)(常)(。男)(孩)(偏)(好)(是)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(结)(构)(失)(衡)(的)(内)(在)(动)(机)(。出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(失)(衡)(现)(象)(本)(质)(上)(是)(微)(观)(层)(面)(个)(体)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(和)(性)(别)(选)(择)(行)(为)(在)(宏)(观)(层)(面)(的)(统)(计)(体)(现)(。  人)(们)(的)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(随)(着)(时)(代)(的)(变)(迁)(而)(发)(生)(变)(化)(。计)(划)(生)(育)(政)(策)(实)(施)(初)(期)(的)(较)(高)(水)(平)(,经)(过)(20世)(纪)(90年)(代)(的)(快)(速)(下)(降)(,到)(2000年)(至)(今)(稳)(定)(在)(较)(低)(水)(平)(。这)(30多)(年)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(范)(围)(内)(有)(关)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(的)(调)(查)(超)(过)(200次)(,勾)(勒)(了)(中)(国)(人)(口)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(的)(变)(迁)(过)(程)(。  多)(数)(调)(查)(和)(分)(析)(都)(关)(注)(了)(意)(愿)(生)(育)(数)(量)(:20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(的)(调)(查)(分)(析)(显)(示)(农)(村)(居)(民)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(以)(2~3人)(为)(主)(,内)(地)(及)(落)(后)(地)(区)(则)(以)(3孩)(及)(以)(上)(为)(主)(,城)(市)(居)(民)(的)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(以)(1~2人)(为)(主)(,地)(区)(差)(异)(较)(为)(明)(显)(,平)(均)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(约)(2.13个)(。1990年)(代)(以)(后)(,农)(村)(居)(民)(的)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(则)(多)(以)(2孩)(为)(主)(,城)(市)(居)(民)(的)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(则)(以)(1孩)(为)(主)(,平)(均)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(约)(1.90个)(。2000~2011年)(平)(均)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(下)(降)(到)(1.67个)(,根)(据)(2012年)(中)(国)(家)(庭)(幸)(福)(感)(热)(点)(问)(题)(调)(查)(,育)(龄)(人)(群)(平)(均)(意)(愿)(生)(育)(子)(女)(数)(为)(1.86个)(,2013年)(中)(国)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(调)(查)(城)(乡)(居)(民)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(为)(1.93个)(。  2000年)(以)(后)(的)(调)(查)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,城)(乡)(居)(民)(意)(愿)(生)(育)(子)(女)(数)(的)(差)(异)(在)(逐)(渐)(缩)(小)(,受)(教)(育)(程)(度)(差)(距)(也)(不)(断)(缩)(小)(。调)(查)(还)(涉)(及)(目)(标)(群)(体)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,1980年)(代)(和)(1990年)(代)(中)(国)(人)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(比)(例)(差)(异)(不)(大)(,但)(是)(2000年)(之)(后)(想)(要)(男)(孩)(的)(愿)(望)(更)(加)(明)(确)(了)(。  过)(去)(30多)(年)(的)(调)(查)(数)(据)(还)(显)(示)(,“1男)(1女)(”的)(子)(女)(构)(成)(模)(式)(是)(最)(普)(遍)(的)(愿)(望)(,尤)(其)(是)(在)(20世)(纪)(80年)(代)(这)(是)(多)(数)(人)(的)(愿)(望)(。到)(了)(20世)(纪)(90年)(代)(,儿)(女)(双)(全)(的)(偏)(好)(有)(所)(减)(弱)(,2000年)(之)(后)(基)(本)(保)(持)(1990年)(代)(水)(平)(。生)(育)(意)(愿)(变)(迁)(过)(程)(中)(的)(内)(部)(不)(协)(调)(问)(题)(显)(著)(,即)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(的)(变)(迁)(速)(度)(相)(对)(较)(快)(,而)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(变)(迁)(的)(速)(度)(相)(对)(较)(慢)(。  四)(川)(省)(居)(民)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(的)(内)(部)(失)(调)(性)(表)(现)(较)(为)(突)(出)(。本)(文)(以)(2015年)(四)(川)(省)(关)(于)(促)(进)(人)(口)(结)(构)(平)(衡)(调)(查)(为)(例)(,试)(观)(察)(和)(刻)(画)(婚)(育)(群)(体)(的)(生)(育)(偏)(好)(和)(相)(关)(生)(育)(行)(为)(,从)(而)(确)(立)(全)(面)(放)(开)(二)(孩)(后)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(结)(构)(治)(理)(的)(切)(入)(点)(,选)(择)(有)(效)(的)(生)(育)(治)(理)(方)(式)(。  一)(、数)(据)(来)(源)(及)(描)(述)(性)(统)(计)(分)(析)(  本)(文)(采)(用)(2015年)(“促)(进)(四)(川)(省)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(结)(构)(平)(衡)(研)(究)(问)(卷)(”抽)(样)(调)(查)(数)(据)(。调)(查)(从)(四)(川)(省)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(治)(理)(的)(实)(施)(情)(况)(出)(发)(,按)(照)(代)(表)(性)(、全)(面)(性)(和)(可)(比)(性)(的)(原)(则)(选)(取)(经)(济)(发)(展)(水)(平)(较)(高)(的)(平)(原)(以)(及)(经)(济)(发)(展)(水)(平)(相)(对)(欠)(发)(达)(的)(丘)(陵)(和)(山)(区)(,在)(与)(计)(生)(部)(门)(有)(关)(领)(导)(、专)(家)(进)(行)(充)(分)(讨)(论)(、科)(学)(论)(证)(的)(基)(础)(上)(选)(取)(广)(元)(、绵)(阳)(、南)(充)(、甘)(孜)(、成)(都)(5个)(地)(市)(作)(为)(调)(查)(地)(区)(。遵)(循)(同)(样)(抽)(样)(调)(查)(原)(则)(分)(别)(选)(取)(上)(述)(地)(区)(5个)(县)(/区)((分)(别)(为)(旺)(苍)(、涪)(城)(、阆)(中)(、德)(格)(、都)(江)(堰)()作)(为)(下)(一)(层)(调)(查)(目)(标)(,最)(后)(在)(5个)(县)(/区)(中)(选)(取)(若)(干)(镇)(和)(行)(政)(村)(作)(为)(目)(标)(对)(象)(进)(行)(整)(群)(抽)(样)(,共)(计)(48个)(村)(镇)(。该)(调)(查)(主)(要)(针)(对)(育)(龄)(期)(人)(口)(,涉)(及)(年)(龄)(、性)(别)(、教)(育)(、民)(族)(、婚)(姻)(状)(况)(、户)(籍)(状)(况)(等)(人)(口)(基)(本)(属)(性)(,在)(此)(基)(础)(上)(还)(调)(查)(了)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(知)(晓)(情)(况)(、生)(育)(性)(别)(意)(愿)(以)(及)(对)(现)(行)(相)(关)(政)(策)(看)(法)(等)(问)(题)(。调)(查)(共)(发)(放)(问)(卷)(1250份)(,有)(效)(问)(卷)(1209份)(,有)(效)(率)(为)(96%。调)(查)(对)(象)(中)(男)(性)(513名)(,女)(性)(684名)(。  (一)()理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(:绝)(大)(多)(数)(的)(受)(访)(者)(期)(望)(儿)(女)(双)(全)(  第)(一)(,假)(如)(没)(有)(计)(划)(生)(育)(政)(策)(的)(限)(制)(,愿)(意)(生)(育)(1个)(孩)(子)(的)(受)(访)(者)(占)(36.0%,而)(约)(33.7%的)(受)(访)(者)(愿)(意)(生)(育)(2个)(孩)(子)(,其)(中)(除)(个)(别)(受)(访)(者)(愿)(意)(生)(育)(2个)(男)(孩)(或)(2个)(女)(孩)(外)(,绝)(大)(多)(数)(的)(受)(访)(者)(期)(望)(能)(够)(儿)(女)(双)(全)(,生)(育)(1儿)(1女)(。只)(有)(半)(数)(以)(下)(的)(受)(访)(者)(认)(为)(“多)(生)(一)(个)(孩)(子)(对)(家)(庭)(负)(担)(没)(有)(影)(响)(”,这)(可)(能)(是)(孩)(子)(抚)(养)(成)(本)(提)(高)(所)(导)(致)(的)(。  第)(二)(,想)(要)(生)(育)(多)(个)(孩)(子)(的)(家)(庭)(只)(占)(少)(数)(,其)(中)(13.7%的)(受)(访)(者)(愿)(意)(生)(育)(3个)(孩)(子)(,7.9%的)(受)(访)(者)(愿)(意)(生)(育)(4个)(甚)(至)(更)(多)(孩)(子)(,而)(仅)(有)(5.9%的)(人)(选)(择)(不)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(。调)(查)(的)(育)(龄)(人)(群)(的)(平)(均)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(为)(1.8个)(。  从)(受)(访)(家)(庭)(希)(望)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(的)(性)(别)(情)(况)(来)(看)(,受)(访)(者)(及)(其)(配)(偶)(认)(为)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(和)(女)(孩)(都)(一)(样)(,七)(成)(人)(不)(存)(在)(强)(烈)(生)(育)(偏)(好)(。将)(生)(育)(政)(策)(因)(素)(考)(虑)(在)(内)(时)(,不)(论)(第)(一)(孩)(是)(男)(孩)(还)(是)(女)(孩)(,超)(过)(七)(成)(的)(人)(都)(希)(望)(在)(政)(策)(允)(许)(的)(情)(况)(下)(再)(生)(育)(1个)(孩)(子)(。其)(中)(,希)(望)(生)(育)(1男)(1女)(的)(受)(访)(者)(占)(比)(较)(高)(,当)(第)(一)(个)(孩)(子)(为)(男)(孩)(时)(,64.0%的)(人)(希)(望)(再)(生)(育)(1个)(女)(孩)(,而)(不)(论)(政)(策)(是)(否)(允)(许)(都)(希)(望)(再)(生)(育)(1个)(孩)(子)(的)(受)(访)(者)(占)(比)(相)(对)(较)(低)(,他)(们)(对)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(期)(望)(的)(差)(别)(并)(不)(明)(显)(,只)(是)(表)(现)(出)(强)(烈)(的)(再)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(。相)(同)(条)(件)(下)(,希)(望)(生)(育)(2个)(女)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(占)(比)(略)(高)(于)(希)(望)(生)(育)(2个)(男)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(。可)(以)(说)(,即)(使)(没)(有)(明)(显)(的)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(,多)(数)(受)(访)(者)(还)(是)(存)(在)(“儿)(女)(双)(全)(”的)(生)(育)(结)(构)(偏)(好)(。值)(得)(一)(提)(的)(是)(,1/6左)(右)(的)(受)(访)(者)(偏)(好)(只)(生)(育)(1个)(孩)(子)(,不)(论)(政)(策)(是)(否)(允)(许)(,他)(们)(都)(不)(想)(再)(生)(育)(。  (二)()孝)(文)(化)(对)(生)(育)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(不)(可)(小)(视)(  然)(而)(,被)(调)(查)(者)(认)(为)(他)(们)(的)(长)(辈)((父)(母)(、公)(婆)(或)(岳)(父)(母)()存)(在)(相)(对)(更)(强)(烈)(的)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(,近)(四)(成)(的)(长)(辈)(希)(望)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(,同)(样)(比)(例)(的)(人)(认)(为)(男)(孩)(更)(好)(;显)(然)(,对)(性)(别)(不)(存)(在)(偏)(好)(、认)(为)(男)(孩)(女)(孩)(一)(样)(好)(的)(长)(辈)(的)(比)(例)(较)(低)(。75.3%的)(受)(访)(者)(倾)(向)(于)(认)(为)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(老)(人)(会)(更)(高)(兴)(。受)(访)(者)(家)(庭)(成)(员)(中)(希)(望)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(以)(及)(认)(为)(女)(孩)(好)(的)(比)(例)(最)(低)(,大)(都)(低)(于)(10%。  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,女)(性)(受)(访)(者)(更)(容)(易)(表)(现)(其)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(的)(偏)(好)(。总)(的)(来)(说)(,对)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(强)(于)(对)(女)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(,年)(长)(者)(的)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(强)(于)(年)(轻)(者)(的)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(。  调)(查)(中)(,虽)(然)(多)(数)(受)(访)(者)(认)(为)(长)(辈)(存)(在)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,但)(只)(有)(1/4的)(受)(访)(者)(表)(示)(如)(果)(没)(有)(生)(男)(孩)(的)(话)(,他)(们)(会)(有)(压)(力)(。从)(压)(力)(来)(源)(的)(分)(布)(看)(,来)(自)(父)(母)(与)(配)(偶)(的)(压)(力)(最)(大)(,其)(次)(是)(周)(围)(邻)(里)(。  归)(根)(到)(底)(,孝)(文)(化)(的)(思)(想)(对)(人)(们)(的)(影)(响)(不)(可)(小)(视)(,因)(为)(知)(道)(长)(辈)(对)(于)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(,受)(访)(者)(希)(望)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(满)(足)(父)(母)(的)(期)(望)(。  通)(过)(对)(传)(统)(生)(育)(观)(念)(认)(识)(的)(继)(续)(调)(查)(发)(现)(,45.5%的)(人)(认)(为)(“只)(有)(生)(男)(孩)(才)(算)(完)(成)(了)(传)(宗)(接)(代)(的)(任)(务)(”,44.7%的)(人)(认)(为)(“只)(有)(生)(男)(孩)(,自)(己)(的)(养)(老)(才)(有)(保)(障)(”,41.2%的)(人)(认)(为)(“生)(育)(男)(孩)(才)(可)(以)(增)(加)(家)(庭)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(和)(家)(庭)(收)(入)(”。这)(里)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,除)(了)(现)(代)(生)(育)(观)(念)(影)(响)(不)(够)(外)(,养)(老)(的)(需)(求)(以)(及)(生)(产)(方)(式)(的)(落)(后)(都)(促)(使)(传)(统)(生)(育)(观)(念)(继)(续)(产)(生)(影)(响)(。  二)(、男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(地)(域)(与)(人)(口)(特)(征)(分)(析)(  不)(论)(是)(分)(地)(区)(、分)(户)(籍)(类)(型)(还)(是)(分)(人)(口)(类)(型)(,至)(少)(超)(过)(一)(半)(的)(受)(访)(者)(表)(示)(生)(男)(孩)(、生)(女)(孩)(都)(一)(样)(,然)(而)(,少)(数)(明)(确)(了)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(意)(愿)(的)(受)(访)(者)(表)(现)(出)(明)(显)(的)(地)(域)(特)(征)(及)(人)(口)(特)(征)(。  1.少)(数)(民)(族)(地)(区)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(特)(征)(更)(突)(出)(。整)(体)(上)(所)(有)(调)(查)(区)(域)(的)(大)(部)(分)(受)(访)(者)(不)(存)(在)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(。他)(们)(认)(为)(生)(男)(生)(女)(都)(一)(样)(,以)(经)(济)(水)(平)(较)(高)(的)(绵)(阳)(地)(区)(为)(代)(表)(,该)(地)(区)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(分)(布)(与)(所)(有)(调)(查)(地)(区)(整)(体)(水)(平)(相)(当)(。相)(对)(落)(后)(的)(以)(少)(数)(民)(族)(人)(口)(为)(主)(的)(甘)(孜)(藏)(族)(自)(治)(州)(受)(访)(者)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(最)(强)(烈)(,35.3%的)(人)(想)(要)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(,只)(有)(9.27%的)(人)(想)(要)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(;历)(史)(文)(化)(名)(城)(南)(充)(地)(区)(的)(受)(访)(者)(也)(表)(现)(出)(较)(强)(烈)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,约)(1/5的)(受)(访)(者)(想)(要)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(,这)(个)(比)(例)(是)(想)(要)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(的)(近)(10倍)(,两)(者)(的)(差)(距)(远)(大)(于)(甘)(孜)(藏)(族)(自)(治)(州)(地)(区)(对)(男)(孩)(、女)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(差)(距)(。相)(反)(,浅)(丘)(地)(势)(的)(广)(元)(地)(区)(与)(平)(原)(地)(区)(成)(都)(的)(受)(访)(者)(更)(偏)(好)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(,两)(地)(愿)(意)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(的)(比)(例)(分)(别)(为)(12.6%、12.1%,是)(愿)(意)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(1.67倍)(和)(2.4倍)(。  2.城)(镇)(化)(发)(展)(会)(缓)(解)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(生)(育)(观)(念)(。农)(业)(户)(口)(与)(非)(农)(业)(户)(口)(人)(群)(对)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(存)(在)(明)(显)(不)(同)(的)(偏)(好)(。农)(业)(户)(口)(受)(访)(者)(偏)(好)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(,而)(非)(农)(业)(户)(口)(受)(访)(者)(偏)(好)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(,且)(非)(农)(业)(户)(口)(受)(访)(者)(比)(农)(业)(户)(口)(受)(访)(者)(较)(少)(表)(达)(其)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(的)(偏)(好)(,即)(更)(多)(的)(非)(农)(业)(户)(口)(受)(访)(者)(认)(为)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(和)(女)(孩)(都)(一)(样)(。流)(动)(人)(口)(与)(非)(流)(动)(人)(口)(都)(表)(现)(出)(对)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(,但)(两)(者)(对)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(和)(女)(孩)(的)(期)(望)(水)(平)(没)(有)(太)(大)(差)(别)(。只)(是)(非)(流)(动)(人)(口)(中)(有)(更)(多)(人)((28.4%)表)(达)(了)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(,流)(动)(人)(口)(则)(只)(有)(20.7%。  3.男)(孩)(偏)(好)(会)(随)(着)(年)(龄)(增)(长)(加)(剧)(。受)(访)(人)(群)(中)(,20~30岁)(受)(访)(者)(对)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(程)(度)(没)(有)(明)(显)(差)(别)(,而)(30岁)(以)(上)(受)(访)(者)(对)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(十)(分)(显)(著)(,以)(30~36岁)(受)(访)(者)(为)(例)(,想)(要)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(是)(想)(要)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(的)(34倍)(。  4.  受)(教)(育)(水)(平)(越)(低)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(越)(强)(烈)(。高)(中)(及)(以)(下)(教)(育)(程)(度)(的)(受)(访)(者)(存)(在)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(,小)(学)(及)(以)(下)(教)(育)(程)(度)(受)(访)(者)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(最)(强)(烈)(。随)(着)(受)(教)(育)(水)(平)(的)(提)(高)(,受)(访)(者)(对)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(逐)(渐)(减)(弱)(。拥)(有)(大)(专)(学)(历)(的)(受)(访)(者)(的)(女)(孩)(偏)(好)(甚)(至)(明)(显)(强)(于)(其)(对)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(。本)(科)(及)(以)(上)(受)(教)(育)(水)(平)(的)(受)(访)(者)(对)(男)(孩)(和)(女)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(则)(不)(存)(在)(差)(别)(。受)(教)(育)(水)(平)(较)(低)(的)(人)(群)(,其)(生)(育)(观)(念)(主)(要)(受)(传)(统)(生)(育)(文)(化)(所)(支)(配)(,对)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(需)(求)(更)(为)(强)(烈)(、突)(出)(。接)(受)(过)(高)(等)(教)(育)(的)(人)(群)(其)(生)(育)(观)(念)(发)(生)(改)(观)(,他)(们)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(与)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(的)(意)(愿)(不)(存)(在)(明)(显)(差)(别)(。  5.第)(一)(胎)(为)(女)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(对)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(更)(为)(强)(烈)(。第)(一)(孩)(为)(女)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(想)(要)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(是)(想)(要)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(的)(近)(3倍)(,而)(第)(一)(孩)(为)(男)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(中)(,想)(要)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(人)(是)(想)(要)(生)(育)(女)(孩)(的)(2倍)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,更)(多)(第)(一)(孩)(为)(男)(孩)(的)(受)(访)(者)(表)(现)(出)(对)(生)(育)(孩)(子)(性)(别)(的)(偏)(好)(。  6.男)(孩)(偏)(好)(随)(收)(入)(由)(低)(向)(高)(呈)(“u”型)(变)(化)(。受)(访)(者)(无)(论)(收)(入)(高)(低)(,都)(存)(在)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,只)(是)(偏)(好)(程)(度)(各)(有)(不)(同)(。按)(照)(收)(入)(从)(低)(到)(高)(,受)(访)(者)(对)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(呈)(“u”型)(变)(化)(,即)(随)(着)(收)(入)(增)(加)(,受)(访)(者)(对)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(会)(减)(弱)(;收)(入)(继)(续)(增)(加)(,受)(访)(者)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(意)(愿)(重)(新)(增)(强)(。收)(入)(在)(2000~3000元)(的)(受)(访)(者)(对)(男)(孩)(的)(偏)(好)(最)(弱)(。除)(经)(商)(者)(不)(存)(在)(性)(别)(偏)(好)(外)(,从)(事)(其)(余)(职)(业)(的)(受)(访)(者)((包)(括)(建)(筑)(业)(、服)(务)(业)(等)(从)(业)(人)(员)()均)(存)(在)(明)(显)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(。  三)(、四)(川)(省)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(因)(素)(分)(析)(  民)(族)(属)(性)(、户)(籍)(类)(型)(以)(及)(现)(有)(子)(女)(数)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(显)(著)(。具)(体)(来)(说)(,汉)(族)(人)(口)(相)(对)(于)(少)(数)(民)(族)(人)(口)((由)(于)(本)(调)(查)(只)(涉)(及)(部)(分)(藏)(族)(人)(口)(,因)(此)(这)(里)(用)(藏)(族)(代)(表)(少)(数)(民)(族)()的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(弱)(一)(些)(,这)(与)(少)(数)(民)(族)(的)(宗)(教)(信)(仰)(与)(风)(俗)(习)(惯)(有)(关)(,少)(数)(民)(族)(人)(口)(受)(其)(民)(族)(文)(化)(观)(念)(的)(影)(响)(强)(烈)(,男)(孩)(偏)(好)(发)(生)(概)(率)(更)(高)(。城)(镇)(化)(的)(过)(程)(是)(农)(村)(劳)(动)(力)(向)(城)(市)(转)(移)(的)(过)(程)(,由)(于)(生)(活)(方)(式)(的)(转)(变)(,农)(村)(传)(统)(生)(育)(观)(念)(可)(能)(发)(生)(变)(化)(,男)(孩)(偏)(好)(得)(以)(弱)(化)(。现)(有)(1个)(孩)(子)(和)(有)(2儿)(或)(2女)(的)(人)(相)(比)(较)(于)(有)(3个)(及)(以)(上)(孩)(子)(的)(人)(有)(显)(著)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,而)(有)(l儿)(1女)(的)(人)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(显)(然)(不)(明)(显)(。  理)(想)(孩)(子)(数)(与)(家)(人)(的)(想)(法)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(。家)(人)(的)(想)(法)(对)(受)(访)(者)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(十)(分)(显)(著)(,如)(果)(配)(偶)(、长)(辈)(存)(在)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,受)(访)(者)(也)(更)(容)(易)(存)(在)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,并)(且)(长)(辈)(的)(影)(响)(略)(大)(于)(配)(偶)(的)(影)(响)(。  父)(母)(长)(辈)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(对)(个)(体)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(显)(著)(影)(响)(反)(映)(了)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(在)(代)(际)(之)(间)(的)(传)(递)(效)(应)(,父)(母)(的)(生)(育)(观)(念)(会)(传)(递)(给)(后)(代)(,或)(父)(母)(的)(思)(想)(认)(知)(等)(在)(代)(际)(之)(间)(延)(续)(,使)(后)(代)(继)(承)(相)(似)(的)(价)(值)(观)(。配)(偶)(的)(想)(法)(对)(个)(体)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(更)(显)(著)(,配)(偶)(具)(有)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,个)(体)(也)(容)(易)(具)(有)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,反)(之)(亦)(然)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(,配)(偶)(想)(法)(的)(影)(响)(表)(现)(为)(个)(体)(的)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(的)(同)(群)(效)(应)(,即)(平)(等)(个)(体)(之)(间)(在)(各)(种)(社)(会)(关)(系)(互)(动)(过)(程)(中)(,某)(一)(个)(体)(的)(行)(为)(及)(结)(果)(会)(受)(到)(同)(群)(者)(行)(为)(以)(及)(结)(果)(的)(影)(响)(。以)(此)(类)(推)(,除)(配)(偶)(外)(的)(其)(他)(同)(群)(人)(也)(会)(对)(个)(体)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(产)(生)(影)(响)(,可)(谓)(“近)(朱)(者)(赤)(,近)(墨)(者)(黑)(”。  尽)(管)(由)(于)(生)(育)(政)(策)(对)(生)(育)(子)(女)(数)(量)(的)(规)(定)(,传)(统)(观)(念)(中)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(表)(现)(强)(烈)(,但)(从)(研)(究)(结)(果)(中)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,对)(中)(国)(生)(育)(政)(策)(与)(人)(口)(现)(状)(有)(较)(好)(认)(知)(是)(有)(助)(于)(弱)(化)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(生)(育)(观)(念)(的)(。除)(此)(之)(外)(,家)(人)(的)(想)(法)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(依)(旧)(显)(著)(,但)(考)(虑)(外)(部)(认)(知)(因)(素)(,配)(偶)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(影)(响)(会)(变)(大)(,而)(长)(辈)(的)(影)(响)(会)(变)(小)(。结)(合)(前)(文)(结)(论)(,年)(长)(者)(更)(容)(易)(存)(在)(更)(为)(强)(烈)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(,这)(种)(观)(念)(会)(通)(过)(代)(际)(传)(递)(效)(应)(作)(用)(于)(育)(龄)(群)(体)(,而)(如)(果)(能)(够)(很)(好)(了)(解)(生)(育)(政)(策)(,则)(可)(以)(通)(过)(弱)(化)(长)(辈)(的)(想)(法)(对)(育)(龄)(群)(体)(的)(影)(响)(,进)(而)(弱)(化)(其)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(。同)(理)(,若)(配)(偶)(能)(够)(拥)(有)(新)(型)(生)(育)(观)(念)(,个)(体)(对)(生)(育)(政)(策)(的)(良)(好)(认)(知)(可)(以)(实)(现)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(双)(重)(弱)(化)(作)(用)(。  非)(流)(动)(人)(口)(比)(流)(动)(人)(口)(有)(更)(强)(的)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(。流)(动)(人)(口)(在)(从)(农)(村)(向)(城)(市)(的)(流)(动)(过)(程)(中)(会)(有)(更)(多)(机)(会)(接)(受)(城)(市)(现)(代)(生)(育)(观)(念)(,在)(城)(市)(文)(化)(价)(值)(环)(境)(中)(的)(时)(间)(增)(多)(,流)(动)(人)(口)(的)(生)(育)(观)(念)(、行)(为)(也)(会)(慢)(慢)(发)(生)(转)(变)(,继)(而)(摆)(脱)(对)(生)(育)(男)(孩)(的)(强)(烈)(偏)(好)(。另)(外)(,医)(疗)(技)(术)(进)(步)(会)(给)(人)(们)(进)(行)(性)(别)(选)(择)(性)(流)(引)(产)(创)(造)(条)(件)(,当)(人)(们)(了)(解)(并)(使)(用)(性)(别)(选)(择)(技)(术)(后)(,男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(意)(愿)(会)(变)(强)(。  在)(所)(有)(类)(型)(中)(,个)(人)(的)(年)(龄)(、受)(教)(育)(程)(度)(、婚)(姻)(状)(况)(等)(因)(素)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(影)(响)(都)(不)(显)(著)(,但)(不)(能)(就)(此)(说)(这)(些)(因)(素)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(不)(存)(在)(影)(响)(。受)(调)(查)(对)(象)(所)(限)(,有)(些)(变)(量)(的)(特)(征)(不)(能)(完)(全)(体)(现)(,表)(现)(为)(对)(因)(变)(量)(的)(影)(响)(不)(显)(著)(。  本)(文)(根)(据)(2015年)(的)(调)(查)(结)(果)(得)(到)(育)(龄)(群)(体)(理)(想)(子)(女)(数)(约)(1.8个)(,接)(近)(2个)(,与)(21世)(纪)(第)(一)(个)(10年)(相)(比)(有)(抬)(升)(趋)(势)(。少)(数)(明)(确)(其)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(个)(体)(表)(现)(出)(明)(显)(的)(地)(域)(特)(征)(和)(人)(口)(特)(征)(,但)(多)(数)(人)(表)(示)(生)(男)(孩)(、生)(女)(孩)(都)(一)(样)(,男)(孩)(偏)(好)(在)(不)(同)(人)(口)(群)(体)(与)(地)(区)(间)(的)(差)(异)(并)(不)(明)(显)(。家)(庭)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(中)(对)(一)(儿)(一)(女)(的)(生)(育)(结)(构)(存)(在)(偏)(好)(。刚)(放)(开)(的)(全)(面)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(能)(够)(满)(足)(这)(种)(生)(育)(结)(构)(的)(需)(求)(,但)(也)(很)(有)(可)(能)(会)(强)(化)(头)(胎)(为)(女)(孩)(的)(家)(庭)(在)(二)(胎)(上)(选)(择)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(。鉴)(于)(选)(择)(胎)(儿)(性)(别)(鉴)(定)(对)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(的)(显)(著)(影)(响)(,我)(们)(一)(方)(面)(要)(警)(惕)(全)(面)(二)(孩)(生)(育)(政)(策)(可)(能)(带)(来)(的)(生)(育)(反)(弹)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(还)(要)(对)(全)(面)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(目)(标)(人)(群)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(的)(对)(性)(别)(的)(人)(为)(干)(预)(行)(为)(引)(起)(足)(够)(重)(视)(,未)(来)(的)(出)(生)(人)(口)(性)(别)(比)(控)(制)(工)(作)(仍)(然)(需)(要)(继)(续)(巩)(固)(打)(击)(“两)(非)(”的)(工)(作)(成)(果)(。  (文)(章)(经)(授)(权)(转)(载)(自)(《人)(口)(学)(刊)(》2017年)(第)(2期)(,原)(题)(为)(:中)(国)(人)(口)(生)(育)(意)(愿)(与)(男)(孩)(偏)(好)(研)(究)(。有)(删)(节)(,经)(作)(者)(审)(订)(。)
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