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美国经济向好的“负面效应”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年11月16日 05:44:18
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(  美)(国)(是)(2008年)(国)(际)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(肇)(源)(地)(,其)(经)(济)(也)(陷)(入)(了)(“大)(衰)(退)(”,并)(被)(认)(为)(仅)(次)(于)(上)(世)(纪)(30年)(代)(“大)(萧)(条)(”。
  但)(7年)(之)(后)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(似)(乎)(已)(苦)(尽)(甘)(来)(;对)(于)(世)(界)(经)(济)(来)(说)(,这)(看)(上)(去)(是)(一)(个)(好)(消)(息)(,但)(同)(时)(也)(意)(味)(着)(严)(峻)(挑)(战)(。
  美)(国)(经)(济)(持)(续)(向)(好)(,有)(多)(个)(方)(向)(性)(指)(标)(:
  第)(一)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(势)(头)(强)(劲)(。此)(前)(美)(国)(第)(一)(季)(度)(经)(济)(增)(长)(率)(是)(-0.2%,当)(时)(很)(多)(人)(还)(担)(心)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(势)(头)(不)(够)(强)(劲)(,但)(调)(整)(后)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,第)(一)(季)(度)(实)(际)(增)(长)(0.6%。今)(年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(增)(幅)(达)(到)(了)(2.3%,而)(2014年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(增)(幅)(一)(度)(达)(到)(了)(5%。经)(济)(学)(家)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,今)(年)(下)(半)(年)(美)(国)(GDP增)(速)(将)(达)(到)(3%。一)(个)(世)(界)(最)(大)(的)(发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(能)(达)(到)(3%的)(增)(幅)(,已)(经)(相)(当)(惊)(人)(。
  第)(二)(,美)(联)(储)(正)(准)(备)(加)(息)(。而)(加)(息)(的)(前)(提)(条)(件)(正)(是)(美)(国)(经)(济)(持)(续)(向)(好)(,除)(了)(GDP数)(据)(外)(,美)(联)(储)(就)(指)(出)(,美)(国)(的)(就)(业)(市)(场)(、住)(房)(市)(场)(和)(消)(费)(市)(场)(各)(个)(数)(据)(都)(在)(好)(转)(。因)(此)(,加)(息)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(情)(。
  据)(美)(联)(储)(不)(慎)(泄)(露)(出)(的)(材)(料)(,在)(17位)(美)(联)(储)(决)(策)(者)(中)(,15人)(已)(同)(意)(在)(今)(年)(加)(息)(,他)(们)(的)(最)(大)(分)(歧)(是)(今)(年)(应)(加)(息)(一)(次)(还)(是)(两)(次)(。加)(得)(越)(多)(,无)(疑)(说)(明)(经)(济)(更)(强)(劲)(。
  第)(三)(,股)(市)(已)(屡)(创)(新)(高)(。以)(最)(具)(代)(表)(性)(的)(道)(琼)(斯)(工)(业)(平)(均)(指)(数)(为)(例)(,2008年)(前)(最)(高)(点)(在)(13000多)(点)(,受)(金)(融)(危)(机)(冲)(击)(,2009年)(跌)(至)(不)(到)(6500点)(,但)(随)(后)(几)(年)(持)(续)(反)(弹)(。今)(年)(以)(来)(,道)(指)(屡)(创)(新)(高)(,目)(前)(维)(持)(在)(18000点)(左)(右)(,这)(说)(明)(美)(国)(经)(济)(已)(彻)(底)(走)(出)(金)(融)(危)(机)(阴)(影)(。
  美)(国)(经)(济)(否)(极)(泰)(来)(,从)(正)(面)(意)(义)(看)(,肯)(定)(是)(一)(件)(好)(事)(。美)(国)(经)(济)(将)(成)(为)(世)(界)(经)(济)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(发)(动)(机)(,其)(庞)(大)(的)(市)(场)(也)(将)(提)(升)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(对)(美)(出)(口)(,从)(而)(间)(接)(促)(进)(这)(些)(国)(家)(经)(济)(增)(长)(。
  但)(必)(须)(看)(到)(,在)(美)(国)(经)(济)(风)(景)(独)(好)(之)(际)(,其)(他)(经)(济)(体)(正)(受)(到)(重)(创)(,欧)(洲)(经)(济)(依)(然)(低)(迷)(,日)(本)(经)(济)(裹)(足)(不)(前)(,原)(先)(欣)(欣)(向)(荣)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(也)(挑)(战)(重)(重)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(还)(算)(较)(好)(,尽)(管)(增)(速)(减)(缓)(但)(依)(然)(保)(持)(着)(中)(高)(速)(,其)(他)(如)(俄)(罗)(斯)(、巴)(西)(、南)(非)(,很)(多)(国)(家)(经)(济)(甚)(至)(陷)(入)(了)(衰)(退)(。
  与)(之)(相)(对)(应)(的)(,则)(是)(石)(油)(、天)(然)(气)(、铜)(、铁)(、煤)(等)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(持)(续)(暴)(跌)(,这)(又)(对)(一)(些)(资)(源)(出)(口)(国)(带)(来)(沉)(重)(打)(击)(。似)(乎)(应)(该)(最)(抗)(跌)(的)(黄)(金)(,两)(年)(来)(也)(价)(格)(暴)(跌)(了)(40%,而)(且)(不)(排)(除)(继)(续)(跌)(破)(每)(盎)(司)(1000美)(元)(的)(可)(能)(。
  这)(其)(中)(,有)(其)(他)(国)(家)(固)(有)(经)(济)(问)(题)(发)(作)(的)(影)(响)(,但)(也)(与)(美)(国)(经)(济)(向)(好)(的)(负)(面)(效)(应)(有)(关)(。由)(于)(美)(元)(是)(国)(际)(主)(要)(储)(备)(货)(币)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(向)(好)(,再)(加)(上)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(,直)(接)(结)(果)(是)(美)(元)(持)(续)(走)(强)(,大)(量)(美)(元)(开)(始)(从)(其)(他)(国)(家)(向)(美)(国)(本)(土)(回)(流)(,外)(资)(撤)(离)(导)(致)(这)(些)(国)(家)(经)(济)(失)(血)(。
  不)(少)(国)(家)(货)(币)(已)(开)(始)(暴)(跌)(。印)(尼)(盾)(兑)(美)(元)(比)(值)(已)(跌)(至)(17年)(来)(最)(低)(水)(平)(,其)(实)(就)(是)(1997年)(亚)(洲)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。而)(南)(非)(兰)(特)(、巴)(西)(雷)(亚)(尔)(的)(比)(值)(也)(已)(创)(下)(13年)(来)(和)(12年)(来)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。贬)(值)(迫)(使)(一)(些)(国)(家)(央)(行)(采)(取)(加)(息)(措)(施)(,这)(又)(对)(经)(济)(带)(来)(了)(更)(大)(冲)(击)(。
  因)(此)(每)(次)(重)(大)(国)(际)(经)(济)(会)(议)(,其)(他)(国)(家)(都)(会)(要)(求)(美)(国)(采)(取)(“负)(责)(任)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(”,但)(这)(最)(多)(是)(道)(德)(的)(约)(束)(,愿)(不)(愿)(负)(责)(任)(,负)(多)(少)(责)(任)(,还)(是)(美)(国)(人)(最)(终)(说)(了)(算)(。可)(以)(这)(样)(说)(,对)(世)(界)(经)(济)(而)(言)(,美)(国)(有)(时)(像)(是)(一)(个)(闯)(进)(瓷)(器)(店)(的)(大)(象)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(糟)(糕)(,世)(界)(经)(济)(倒)(霉)(;美)(国)(经)(济)(向)(好)(,不)(少)(国)(家)(也)(受)(累)(。(刘)(洪)()
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