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【兴证宏观】美国软指标再超预期,但“硬数据”难言惊喜(全球宏观视角)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年01月17日 22:01:44
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东彩北京pk10怎么玩信誉平台官方,招龙虎和代理注册实力诚招代理Q扣992.77.339时时彩龙虎和,意彩彩票代理,意彩官网,意彩平台注册,意彩乐官网,意彩娱乐官方网站【兴证宏观】美国软指标再超预期,但“硬数据”难言惊喜(全球宏观视角)

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(原)(标)(题)(:【兴)(证)(宏)(观)(】美)(国)(软)(指)(标)(再)(超)(预)(期)(,但)(“硬)(数)(据)(”难)(言)(惊)(喜)((全)(球)(宏)(观)(视)(角)()
内)(容)(摘)(要)(
1)全)(球)(市)(场)(:特)(朗)(普)(政)(策)(重)(心)(转)(移)(,能)(源)(价)(格)(反)(弹)(;
2)重)(要)(事)(件)(:特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(行)(政)(令)(调)(查)(贸)(易)(关)(系)(,法)(国)(首)(轮)(大)(选)(民)(调)(支)(持)(率)(马)(克)(隆)(与)(勒)(庞)(持)(平)(,英)(国)(退)(欧)(进)(程)(开)(启)(;
3)经)(济)(数)(据)(:美)(国)(通)(胀)(上)(行)(,消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(等)(软)(指)(标)(再)(超)(预)(期)(;欧)(元)(区)(通)(胀)(回)(落)(;韩)(国)(、泰)(国)(出)(口)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(。
全)(球)(市)(场)(动)(态)(
海)(外)(市)(场)(:特)(朗)(普)(政)(策)(重)(心)(扩)(散)(至)(环)(保)(和)(贸)(易)(
本)(周)(的)(全)(球)(大)(类)(资)(产)(表)(现)(有)(两)(点)(特)(别)(值)(得)(注)(意)(:1)特)(朗)(普)(医)(疗)(法)(案)(被)(否)(的)(影)(响)(在)(经)(过)(前)(一)(周)(的)(调)(整)(之)(后)(逐)(渐)(被)(市)(场)(接)(受)(,本)(周)(“反)(特)(朗)(普)(交)(易)(”出)(现)(一)(定)(程)(度)(的)(反)(复)(;2)在)(医)(疗)(法)(案)(在)(众)(议)(院)(受)(阻)(后)(,本)(周)(特)(朗)(普)(政)(策)(的)(重)(心)(明)(显)(扩)(展)(至)(其)(他)(方)(面)(——环)(保)(和)(贸)(易)(。
尤)(其)(是)(3月)(28日)(特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(的)(行)(政)(令)(,推)(翻)(了)(奥)(巴)(马)(的)(“清)(洁)(电)(力)(计)(划)(”,以)(期)(提)(振)(煤)(炭)(行)(业)(和)(油)(气)(行)(业)(。受)(此)(因)(素)(以)(及)(原)(油)(库)(存)(数)(据)(等)(利)(好)(因)(素)(影)(响)(,本)(周)(WTI原)(油)(涨)(幅)(达)(到)(5.5%,成)(为)(本)(周)(表)(现)(最)(亮)(眼)(的)(资)(产)(类)(别)(。
在)(政)(策)(推)(行)(屡)(屡)(受)(阻)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,特)(朗)(普)(总)(统)(的)(当)(务)(之)(急)(是)(努)(力)(推)(进)(政)(策)(落)(地)(以)(挽)(回)(信)(任)(危)(机)(,当)(前)(的)(选)(择)(是)(环)(保)(政)(策)((相)(对)(容)(易)(落)(实)(的)()和)(贸)(易)(政)(策)((试)(图)(将)(矛)(盾)(转)(移)(到)(其)(他)(国)(家)()。除)(了)(废)(止)(清)(洁)(电)(力)(计)(划)(以)(外)(,本)(周)(特)(朗)(普)(频)(频)(在)(贸)(易)(方)(面)(给)(出)(压)(力)(,要)(求)(调)(查)(美)(国)(贸)(易)(逆)(差)(成)(因)(和)(研)(究)(对)(策)(,这)(似)(乎)(也)(为)(即)(将)(到)(来)(的)(“习)(特)(会)(”定)(下)(基)(调)(。
至)(于)(市)(场)(更)(加)(喜)(欢)(的)(减)(税)(政)(策)(,我)(们)(此)(前)(已)(进)(行)(过)(详)(尽)(的)(分)(析)(指)(出)(其)(是)(相)(对)(容)(易)(出)(台)(的)(政)(策)(类)(型)((可)(以)(通)(过)(调)(和)(法)(案)(形)(式)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(绕)(过)(少)(数)(党)(阻)(碍)()。从)(过)(去)(历)(届)(总)(统)(的)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,减)(税)(政)(策)(的)(出)(台)(通)(常)(在)(总)(统)(上)(任)(后)(的)(半)(年)(左)(右)(。目)(前)(的)(争)(议)(主)(要)(来)(自)(于)(减)(税)(的)(幅)(度)(,而)(特)(朗)(普)(似)(乎)(将)(此)(作)(为)(政)(党)(之)(间)(博)(弈)(的)(筹)(码)(,因)(此)(减)(税)(政)(策)(可)(能)(迟)(到)(但)(不)(会)(缺)(席)(。
此)(外)(,4月)(6-7日)(的)(“习)(特)(会)(”除)(了)(就)(贸)(易)(问)(题)(以)(外)(,还)(将)(对)(系)(列)(重)(要)(问)(题)(进)(行)(商)(讨)(。如)(果)(会)(晤)(能)(在)(周)(边)(国)(家)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(等)(方)(面)(取)(得)(一)(些)(突)(破)(,可)(能)(在)(二)(季)(度)(看)(到)(避)(险)(资)(产)((如)(日)(元)(、黄)(金)()的)(一)(些)(机)(会)(。
美)(股)(方)(面)(,本)(周)(标)(普)(500大)(部)(分)(行)(业)(指)(数)(上)(涨)(,其)(中)(能)(源)(板)(块)(涨)(幅)(最)(大)(,主)(要)(受)(油)(价)(上)(涨)(和)(特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(行)(政)(令)(推)(翻)(奥)(巴)(马)(的)(“清)(洁)(电)(力)(计)(划)(”的)(影)(响)(;零)(售)(等)(板)(块)(受)(益)(于)(消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(等)(经)(济)(数)(据)(向)(好)(。同)(时)(,公)(用)(事)(业)(板)(块)(跌)(幅)(最)(大)(。
全)(球)(大)(事)(述)(评)(
特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(行)(政)(令)(调)(查)(贸)(易)(关)(系)(
近)(日)(,美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(两)(项)(行)(政)(命)(令)(,要)(求)(审)(查)(美)(国)(与)(所)(有)(国)(家)(的)(贸)(易)(关)(系)(,列)(出)(导)(致)(美)(国)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(的)(所)(有)(国)(家)(和)(产)(品)(名)(称)(的)(清)(单)(,并)(要)(求)(加)(强)(贸)(易)(执)(法)(,强)(化)(对)(那)(些)(得)(到)(外)(国)(政)(府)(补)(贴)(的)(进)(口)(商)(品)(征)(收)(关)(税)(和)(罚)(金)(的)(措)(施)(。此)(举)(让)(美)(国)(与)(其)(主)(要)(贸)(易)(伙)(伴)(之)(间)(的)(贸)(易)(关)(系)(面)(临)(巨)(大)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。
法)(国)(首)(轮)(大)(选)(民)(调)(支)(持)(率)(马)(克)(隆)(与)(勒)(庞)(持)(平)(
3月)(29日)(,法)(国)(总)(统)(候)(选)(人)(马)(克)(隆)(表)(示)(将)(循)(序)(渐)(进)(地)(减)(免)(企)(业)(税)(,实)(施)(长)(期)(结)(构)(改)(革)(,注)(重)(提)(高)(工)(人)(技)(术)(和)(商)(品)(质)(量)(,以)(便)(提)(高)(国)(际)(竞)(争)(力)(。此)(外)(,候)(选)(人)(菲)(永)(的)(妻)(子)(将)(因)(为)(涉)(嫌)(串)(谋)(盗)(用)(公)(共)(基)(金)(、滥)(用)(资)(产)(以)(及)(欺)(诈)(等)(而)(被)(法)(国)(地)(方)(法)(官)(正)(式)(调)(查)(。两)(周)(之)(前)(,菲)(永)(本)(人)(已)(经)(因)(为)(同)(一)(案)(件)(而)(被)(正)(式)(调)(查)(。本)(周)(民)(调)(结)(果)(显)(示)(极)(右)(翼)(总)(统)(候)(选)(人)(勒)(庞)(在)(首)(轮)(投)(票)(中)(的)(支)(持)(率)(继)(续)(下)(降)(,马)(克)(隆)(保)(持)(不)(变)(,菲)(永)(的)(支)(持)(率)(则)(小)(幅)(下)(降)(,OpinionWay民)(调)(:极)(右)(翼)(勒)(庞)(24%(下)(降)(2%)、独)(立)(竞)(选)(人)(马)(克)(隆)(24%(保)(持)(不)(变)()、中)(右)(翼)(候)(选)(人)(菲)(永)(19%(下)(降)(1%)。而)(oddschecker给)(出)(的)(前)(3名)(候)(选)(人)(隐)(含)(获)(胜)(概)(率)(依)(次)(为)(:马)(克)(隆)(64.13%(相)(对)(上)(周)(下)(降)(5.08%),勒)(庞)(24.07%(下)(降)(0.22%),菲)(永)(19.68%(上)(升)(5.74%)。法)(国)(将)(于)(4月)(23日)(举)(行)(第)(一)(轮)(总)(统)(大)(选)(。三)(位)(主)(要)(候)(选)(人)(的)(政)(见)(差)(异)(等)(信)(息)(请)(参)(见)(专)(题)(报)(告)(《》。
注)(:根)(据)(博)(彩)(计)(算)(,三)(人)(获)(胜)(概)(率)(相)(加)(并)(不)(等)(于)(100%
英)(国)(退)(欧)(进)(程)(开)(启)(
3月)(29日)(上)(午)(,英)(国)(首)(相)(梅)(正)(式)(宣)(布)(启)(动)(《里)(斯)(本)(条)(约)(》第)(50条)(,触)(发)(英)(国)(退)(出)(欧)(盟)(的)(程)(序)(,从)(而)(启)(动)(重)(塑)(英)(国)(和)(欧)(洲)(未)(来)(的)(退)(欧)(谈)(判)(。3月)(31日)(,欧)(盟)(关)(于)(英)(国)(退)(欧)(指)(导)(方)(针)(草)(案)(曝)(光)(,草)(案)(显)(示)(欧)(盟)(的)(态)(度)(十)(分)(强)(硬)(,坚)(持)(分)(阶)(段)(进)(行)(谈)(判)(,强)(调)(非)(欧)(盟)(国)(家)(不)(能)(享)(受)(欧)(盟)(成)(员)(国)(的)(同)(等)(权)(利)(,欧)(盟)(成)(员)(国)(企)(业)(和)(公)(民)(在)(英)(国)(的)(权)(利)(将)(会)(延)(续)(到)(英)(国)(正)(式)(退)(出)(欧)(盟)(为)(止)(,预)(计)(欧)(盟)(和)(英)(国)(的)(和)(解)(费)(用)(将)(达)(到)(600亿)(欧)(元)(。欧)(盟)(27国)(领)(导)(人)(将)(在)(4月)(29日)(的)(欧)(盟)(峰)(会)(上)(通)(过)(英)(国)(退)(欧)(的)(指)(导)(方)(针)(,在)(此)(之)(前)(欧)(盟)(各)(国)(将)(对)(此)(进)(行)(讨)(论)(,而)(英)(国)(退)(欧)(谈)(判)(可)(从)(5月)(22日)(起)(开)(始)(。
海)(外)(数)(据)(一)(周)(详)(解)(
美)(国)(:通)(胀)(上)(行)(,消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(等)(软)(指)(标)(走)(高)(
PCE平)(减)(指)(数)(上)(行)(。美)(国)(2月)(份)(PCE平)(减)(指)(数)(同)(比)(增)(长)(2.1%,创)(2012年)(5月)(以)(来)(最)(大)(增)(幅)(,维)(持)(了)(自)(2016年)(7月)(以)(来)(的)(上)(升)(趋)(势)(;核)(心)(PCE同)(比)(为)(1.75%,基)(本)(与)(上)(期)(持)(平)(。这)(显)(示)(PCE的)(上)(行)(可)(能)(主)(要)(由)(能)(源)(价)(格)(推)(动)(。美)(国)(2月)(PCE平)(减)(指)(数)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.1%,连)(续)(第)(12个)(月)(环)(比)(正)(增)(长)(,但)(远)(低)(于)(上)(月)(的)(0.4%,与)(2016年)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(保)(持)(一)(致)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,核)(心)(PCE环)(比)(增)(长)(0.19%,也)(低)(于)(上)(月)(的)(0.28%。
个)(人)(开)(支)(走)(弱)(。美)(国)(2月)(开)(始)(开)(支)(环)(比)(仅)(增)(长)(0.1%,是)(去)(年)(8月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(增)(速)(,实)(际)(个)(人)(开)(支)(环)(比)(-0.1%,是)(连)(续)(第)(二)(个)(月)(负)(增)(长)(。考)(虑)(到)(2月)(个)(人)(收)(入)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.4%,以)(及)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(向)(好)(、消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(维)(持)(高)(位)(,个)(人)(开)(支)(走)(软)(可)(能)(是)(暂)(时)(性)(的)(。
零)(售)(端)(库)(存)(增)(速)(平)(稳)(。美)(国)(2月)(批)(发)(库)(存)(初)(值)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.4%,高)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(值)(0.2%,也)(明)(显)(高)(于)(上)(期)(的)(-0.2%。同)(时)(,零)(售)(库)(存)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.4%,远)(低)(于)(上)(期)(值)(0.9%。从)(库)(存)(的)(同)(比)(增)(速)(来)(看)(,2月)(批)(发)(商)(库)(存)(继)(续)(上)(升)(,达)(到)(近)(17个)(月)(的)(最)(高)(增)(速)(;而)(零)(售)(库)(存)(相)(对)(上)(月)(略)(有)(下)(降)(,连)(续)(第)(六)(个)(月)(处)(于)(3-4%的)(区)(间)(。
成)(屋)(销)(售)(量)(强)(劲)(增)(长)(。2月)(成)(屋)(待)(完)(成)(销)(售)(指)(数)(环)(比)(增)(长)(5.5%,这)(是)(去)(年)(4月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(增)(速)(,也)(是)(2006年)(5月)(以)(来)(的)(次)(高)(水)(平)(。这)(说)(明)(房)(价)(与)(抵)(押)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(上)(升)(对)(美)(国)(的)(住)(房)(市)(场)(影)(响)(似)(乎)(并)(不)(大)(。
软)(指)(标)(继)(续)(走)(高)(。a)消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(仍)(强)(。美)(国)(3月)(经)(济)(咨)(商)(局)(消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(指)(数)(达)(到)(125.6,创)(2001年)(以)(来)(新)(高)(;3月)(密)(歇)(根)(大)(学)(信)(心)(指)(数)(终)(值)(96.9,不)(及)(初)(值)(,但)(仍)(高)(于)(上)(月)(终)(值)(。b)联)(储)(调)(查)(软)(指)(标)(分)(化)(。3月)(芝)(加)(哥)(PMI57.7,3月)(里)(士)(满)(联)(储)(制)(造)(业)(指)(数)(为)(22,两)(者)(均)(强)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,而)(3月)(达)(拉)(斯)(联)(邦)(储)(备)(银)(行)(制)(造)(业)(活)(动)(指)(数)(为)(16.9,不)(及)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,本)(轮)(美)(国)(复)(苏)(主)(要)(是)(软)(指)(标)(频)(超)(预)(期)(,扣)(除)(软)(指)(标)(后)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(难)(言)(“惊)(喜)(”。
受)(益)(于)(消)(费)(四)(季)(度)(GDP上)(修)(。2016年)(四)(季)(度)(GDP环)(比)(增)(速)(2.1%,高)(于)(上)(次)(公)(布)(的)(1.9%。同)(期)(个)(人)(消)(费)(环)(比)(增)(长)(从)(3.0%上)(修)(至)(3.5%,美)(国)(消)(费)(仍)(维)(持)(较)(高)(增)(速)(。
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